Bottom-line numbers from BFM revenue estimates

Bob Mercer   |   Pure Pierre Polotics   |   South Dakota Government Blog

Here’s what the Bureau of Finance and Management is predicting, as of this morning, fresh as today’s donuts, for the remainder of fiscal 2013, which ends June 30, and for fiscal 2014, which starts July 1, 2013, for the major categories of state tax revenue:

State sales and use tax — After 4.82 percent growth in FY12, reaching $744.4 million, BFM predicts FY13 growth will total 3.95 percent and FY14 growth will be 3.77 percent. The annual average for the period of 2004 through 2012 was 4.89 percent.

Contractor’s excise tax — After the big declines during the recession, FY12 saw an astounding rebound of 26.3 percent, reaching just shy of $83 million. BFM’s forecast calls for FY13 to finish with 1.45 percent growth and for FY14 to get back on a faster track at nearly 6.4 percent.

Bank franchise tax — After topping $30 million in the five previous years, FY10 saw a slump to just over $20 million, followed by a giant drop in FY11 to $4.7 million. The FY12 total was $29.7 million. For FY13 the forecast is a drop back to $22.9 million, while FY14 is pegged at $23.2 million. This isn’t a good trend.

Insurance tax — This category is a steady grower, from $63.6 million in FY11 to $65.1 million in FY12, followed by an estimated $68.5 million in FY13 and a projected $71.3 million for FY14.

Video lottery — The smoking ban and the recession delivered a one-two punch. After netting $95.8 million for the state’s property tax reduction fund in FY11, there was a drop to $87.3 million for FY12. The estimated FY13 revenue is now estimated to reach $91.6 million. Changes made in the products — new line-up games and new penny plays — are forecast to help bring the number back up to $96.2 million for FY14.